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it's a half day for the markets. the nyse, nasdaq and cme, they all close at 1:00 eastern. as for commodities, of you have comex metals finishing at 12:30. nymex energy closes at 1:30 p.m. and of course it may be a shortened day for the traders, but it is the most important day of the year for retailers. everything from how many cars are parked at the malls to how many items are sold at stores. it can all tell us a lot about the state of the consumer and the u.s. economy today. so we're turning to one of the most seasoned and respected voices on wall street for help. we have dana telsey. she is our guest host for the next three hours. andrew, i'll send it over to you. >> we begin with a visit to toyland and here is toys r us. it opened its doors at 8:00 last night. and we have toys r us ceo joining us right now from the company's flagship store in
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times square. good morning. >> good morning. >> so i read a report you you had a big line. what's it been like all evening? >> it's been great. we did have a big line. we're at 44th and broadway.line went all the the way to 45th street and then down 45th all the way to 6th avenue. it was huge. people came in in a real celebratory mood. people ate ice cream, relaxed with their kids. i've never seen a black friday like this before, but 8:00 hour worked really well for families. >> let's talk about sales. how did it go overnight? >> we're just starting. this is 5:00 a.m. on black friday morning. we're really just starting. we have about a b. maybe a third of the day done. a long way ahead of us. we're adding door busters all day long and we expect everyone to wake up and go out the second time now. >> can you give us a sense, is there one or two products that are flying off the shelves? >> well, the wii u sold very
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well last night. you we have a great deal on ipods. that sold very well. >> what's the wii u? >> it's the new platform from nintendo. the first new hardware platform out in over five years. so it's really important for the future of video gaming. and it's very hot. they're flying off the shelves. >> you did have lines when the store first opened, but from some reports and this is not just toys r us, but across the board you can le board, less lines, maybe a function of the fact everybody started earlier. but i'm also curious what that does to the context of just being in the store, that feeling of that rush feeling all evening that seems to dissipated a little bit earlier as did you open earlier. >> as everyone moved earlier in the evening, then the customer moves around and as they usually do there one store to the other throughout the evening. and then when it got to be midnight or so, everyone went home and went to sleep. and they'll wake up again thorn
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and come out shopping as i mentioned. two thirds of the day is still ahead of us. >> and tell us about your employees. one of the big issues with opening earlier and earlier has been a question about labor, about putting people to work on holidays and what that's meant for them and their families. >> we opened at 9:00 p.m. last year. this year 8:00 pmt. so a little tweak, it wasn't a major change. and the customers strongly asked us to do it. and from the environment, you could see they loved it. our employees, they know they work at toys r us. we provide toys for children for the holiday. goes from black friday all the way through christmas. it's a fun time of year. you're ready for it you look forward to it all year long. >> jerry, what about prices? how are prices different this year than they were last year and what are you expecting from online sales? >> our price has been very aggressive for black friday and we've seen that in our competitors, also. we had 32 pages in our circular with many items 50% and 60% off
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and we're adding door busters throughout the day. very low prices. so we think it will be very, very competitive this year and you've seen a lot of emphasis on things like free layaway which we have at toys r us and price matching competitors which is something we're offering and pushing quite strongly because we know our prices are great. and the customer believes we're standing by it and they'll come in groves. >> what is your gauge of the consumer this christmas season? is it a consumer ready and willing to spend or are you forced to pry money from that are hands? >> the consumer is looking no value. definitely looking for deals. that's why black friday is so important to them. and we certainly believe we'll have to offer deals all the way to christmas to get them to the doors and we'll do that. >> jerry, in terms of pricing, and specifically black friday, do you make money on a day like this? >> we make money. or margin is certainly lower than other days of the year.
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i read some articles which i think must not be doing the right comparison this say you might get low are prices other days of the rear. that's simply not true across the board. black friday definitely has the most aggressive pricing that you'll see all year. >> but black friday is not a money losing day for you to bring people into the store to get people introduced to different products and hope to have them come back? >> some of the door busters are likely below cost at every retailer including toys r us. >> what are the door bust irs? >> starting at 5:00 a.m., 50% off tigger. for $19.99, that's half off. an incredible deal. we have lego sets discounts. we have item after item at 50% off. many additional products at buy one get one 50% off. >> how will cyber monday compare
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with black friday? >> black friday is a huge day online, too. but sometimes it's even bigger than cyber monday. on black friday online. so we had a huge night last night on the internet on black friday. but we'll keep aegd deals and that will reach a crescendo on cyber monday which is definitely the day of the year which is the most heavily discounted online. >> i can get the same deals online, i don't have to come out to the stores? >> most. not every one. a door buster, there are only a certain amount allocated for online purchases. so if you want the door buster, it's best to come to the store. you're welcome to shop at toys "r" >> give us a real quick prediction. between now and christmas, retail sales to toys r us and more broadly. >> i will tell you christmas is late this year.
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by that i mean thanks giving is early. you have the most number of days between thanksgiving and christmas. so i expect to be a late christmas, to build significantly over the last few weeks. >> we'll take -- >> i have a question because i'm looking on account line. what was the name of the pony that you brought in here? >> butter scotch. >> thank you. >> we're doing a little shopping around the table, as well. >> we love it. >> happy holidays. >> let's talk retail expectations with dana telsey. thank you for joining us. seriously the state of the consumer, because there are so many questions out there about the global economy, the u.s. economy and what's been happening. where do you you see the american consumer right now? >> i think corporate sentiment a weak than consumer sentiment. we've seen decent same stores growth continuing to be up like 3% to 4%, but they're watching carefully. price matters. we've never seen so many retailers open so early, be
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competitive on price. for this black friday period, a select grouping of items are there to win. the consumer overall, balance sheets are healthy. >> we've been talking about whether the consumer has any of the same concerns about the fiscal cliff or anything else. >> it was a tick up that was going upward. and it came off a little bit the initial readings. so maybe a little bit of cliff is sinking into the consumer. but when we checked on on four key metrics, wages, unemployment, housing and what was the fourth one, debt levels, consumer is in better shape this year than last year.
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>> what is the chance that right now we haven't lost confidence among consumers and so people are out there this thanksgiving weekend buying, maybe next weekend they're buying, but as the fiscal cliff conversation really hits a ahead in mid-december, that somehow confidence starts to drift. >> seems like an upper income kind of concern given the volatility of the stock market. mass market, as long as they're living pay dlek to paycheck, they're buying for their kids. christmas doesn't stop because of what's happening in washington. >> i think consumer sentiment can be fragile. it's curious that it hasn't sunk in more now and maybe that's because it has not been a national story as we've covered it here. but if we do get to a situation
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where we're close to going off the fiscal cliff, people have to start thinking maybe we'll have a recession next year, i think there's still a chance for the politicians to resolve this issue before it becomes a huge -- we do know that it's effecting spending. it's something that's been weaker on the corporate side than the consumer side. that's part of the reason. if it that conversation continues on air but more broadly come christmastime, i have to imagine if you haven't lost your job, you're thinking -- >> and companies like lockheed
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martin considering something like 10,000 layoffs if we go over the fiscal cliff. 80% of their revenue comes from government spending. >> that would impact sentiment. we didn't need that in christmas season when retailers get a lot of their profits. but if we can see it get balanced, that would be a better sign. >> do you think the heat maps i put up last week, it shows how widespread the effects of the cliff would be. how great is an 8% cut in government spend. it will be a widespread impact. so beyond the sentiment issue is a real dollars issue in terms of dollars in people's wallets. >> we'll continue the
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conversation with dana and steve. what else we got going on? >> we're going to check on global markets. we are a bit above fair value here, about 8 points. 2 on the nasdaq and the tp would open -- so would you say that's mixed, right? >> i'd say barely bunch oiged. >> what are we waiting for? >> monday for the holidays to be over. a shortened trading day. europe is down just barely. and asia, which has been trading for quite a while longer here, authorize's they're up a little bit. now let's take a look at oil.
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it's down a little bit. brent right around the 110 mark people have been watching. natural gas down, as well. and the ten year, my favorite gauge, 1.673. nothing's changed. the dollar, what's happening with the dollar here? 1.28. a little more strength -- not much really. >> although that's a stronger euro. big story has been the dollar-yen. some sense that there will be serious spending out of japan. finally, gold. a measure of a lot of things here. up five bucks. time for the global markets report and we have ross westgate standing by in london. any news out of mario draghi in. >> well, he's reiterated what he said for the last month.
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they stand ready to launch the omt should anybody actually want it. of course that means spain. but we saw with an auction yesterday just to recap really pretty good spanish auction. they raised more money, about 3.9 billion. yields were lower. so as long as that continues, they won't be in any rush. not in a germany wants them to rush to it because angela merkel doesn't want to ask for approval to give money to spain anyway. in the light of all of that and the shortened trading session today, you said it, we're fairly flat here. decliners just about outpacing advancers on the dow jones stoxx 600 by around about 5:4. very slim gains. worth pointing out european stocks are on, if we can hold where we are, no big losses today, we're on for our best week in european stocks from around about ten month, we've been up four sessions in a row. see whether we can make it five. volumes are fairly light.
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you talked about the ifo. did come in better than expected. also better on the expect takes. pmis came out yesterday that weren't that great for germany, so slightly off seats that feeling. may cut a cut on the interest rates charge order the loans. might get a maturity extension. that's where there's been a battle between eurozone finance minister, ecb and imf. they want a bigger sort of debt forgiveness program. these are sources quoted from the greek finance minute haveim.
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so that's where we stand at the moment. pretty flat session. spanish yields slightly higher than yesterday. still fairly comfortable. i hope you had a great day yesterday. >> very kind of you. remember last time we saw you, we were talking about end inside day and thanksgiving and how they should feel about this. so we appreciate the sentiment. we'll see you soon. >> i'm liking the thanksgiving sweater look. >> we try. >> did you have turkey yesterday, ross some did you eat any? >> no. >> just in honor of our holiday? >> no. i get a lot of that at christmas. so you don't want to get too early with the turkey over here. >> i hear you. okay. thank you, ross. coming up, we've got a live report coming from best buy in california. the struggling electronics chain posting a significant decline in the third quarter. but there is good news. they have lines of people coming camping out at some locations since sunday.
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jane wells has been up all night hanging on out with some shoppers. i know this isn't too early for you. you're always up at this hour. >> no, i actually, you know, this is about the time i start wrapping it up for the day. i'm with noah and sabastian. what did you get? >> speed for speed most wanted. >> i got gummy bears and the and i would exact thing he did. >> you were here at 3:17 to buy video games and gummy bears. >> got to fulfill our need for speed. >> well, fortunately other people are spending a few more bucks. nobody needs black friday more than best buy to go well. we'll have part of their turnaround strategy when we come back. let's have some gummy bears. customer erin swenson bought from us online today.
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people are out in the stores already. this is beaver creek, ohio. courtney reagan is there and she's been saying crowds have been out in full force. it's black friday. and for a lot of people, that means shop until you drop. as you you might expect, weather can be a key variable for the retailer hes, too. reynolds wolf joins us with a look at how today is shaping up. reynolds wolf joins us with a look at how today is shaping up. reynolds wolf joins us with a look at how today is shaping up. reynolds wolf joins us with a look at how today is shaping up. when i came in, the weather was nice. is that expected to continue? >> absolutely not. you'll see some major changes in parts of the northeast. and the reason why is right behind me. you have some frontal boundary, all this driving eastward.
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it's about 1,000 miles long. it will bring rain, it will bring snow to parts of the great lakes and cool air behind it. let's get started. we have temperatures today, we expect to have them rise in the 50s. so it will start out just fine for you. showers and cool across the northeast later today. midwest, colder air coming in, temperatures will rise, even 60s in dallas. and then out towards the west, final and he will getting a break in spots like seattle. 50 degrees. so a bit more mild. very chilly in the mountains. 81 in los angeles and phoenix. rest of the four corners, very dry and mild. what about your travel? a lot of people will be traveling not just to the shopping mall, but to the airports. we do have someplaces where we may see some backups. what i can it or not, backups could take place especially places like detroit, houston. minor delays in nashville. but new york and los angeles for the time being, nothing to speak of. might have volume delays later in the day at jfk.
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back to you. >> real quickly, as we head into sunday, a lot of people traveling back on sunday, any idea about whether the weather will continue to get worse or improve? >> it is going to be rough in parts of the northern plains. a lot of the small regional airports. out west, not bad either. >> thank, reynolds. happy post-thanksgiving to you. best buy of course in need of a strong start to the holiday shopping seen. jane wells is in california and a lot of people in line for g gummy bears. >> it is packed here. luis, this is your second trip here. you already got the tv for 180 bucks? >> yes. >> when did you come here to camp out in. >> three days ago go. >> did you have turkey here? >> not yet. my wife is right now waiting for us with turkey. >> is this your last trip in. >> yeah.
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>> so you you say. all right. the manager calls this the company's super bowl. part of the turnaround efforts is a new blue initiative that includes approving the customer experience. so the manager turned the traditional pre-open pep rally into a hawaiian battle cry. 80 employees are in here, they prepared for the estimate $1,000 people in line, some waiting since under night and the opening was very orderly.1,000 people in line, some waiting since under night and the opening was very orderly. we asked people who were here if they were here just to shop and then order on online and why did they choose this store.
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why not walmart or target? >> walmart i heard, you know, they were open all day and a bunch of people there, but, you know, best buy has the better deals. >> i like the warranties. they have electronics, you get a good warranty. i usually buy everything here. >> i'll come into best buy and look at the price and then go on amazon and research like more information, year rating s us ratings. the deal here for the door busters are the best over any amazon deal. >> next hour we'll talk to the guy who was first in line, jason, he was there since sunday night, he waited 98 hours. we'll find out what he spent, how much he saved, and break down the hourly rate for those 98 hours and if it was worth it. back to you. >> there's no way it can be worth it, jane. i mean, how much could he possibly have saved and what was the cost of his time? >> well, there's also the
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opportunity to not only save but if you're first in line, you get all the tickets and you you can go out in the parking lot and do a little reselling and maybe cover your costs. >> i didn't realize there was a secondary market. >> maybe this is my fault for thinking this way, but i also think of black friday as being a big time for women to get out and shop. joe's always saying he never goes out at any of these things. there's a lot of guys in the store there. >> oh, no, it's all guys and all young guys mostly. i mean, it's like 20 somethings in here for the most part. because they think it's fun. >> guys with nothing better to do, right? that's really what it is. >> and they're the ones that actually want the electronics stuff probably more than anybody else. >> do they make money on a best buy with these prices? >> door busters you probably don't make the money. you make the money on everything else. all the services and warranties is where you make your money. >> got to hope.
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coming up, from a best by in california to a mall in the midwest. a live report from ohio next. it's the state of the american consumer there coast to coast on this black friday. stay tuned. [ male announcer ] you are a business pro. governor of getting it done. you know how to dance... with a deadline. and from national. because only national lets you choose any car in the aisle... and go. you can even take a full-size or above, and still pay the mid-size price. this is awesome. [ male announcer ] yes, it is, business pro. yes, it is. go national. go like a pro. yes, it is. we are gathered here today to
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welcome back to "squawk box." the professor is here sitting in for joe kernen. our guest host, dana telsey.
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there is one top story this morning and that is retail and that is why she is here to talk all about that with us. and we appreciate it. the nation might be at risk of going straight off the fiscal cliff, but don't tell that to the millions of americans that hit the stores and malls today, actually beginning last night. courtney reagan is standing by in dayton, ohio. good morning to you. >> good morning. that's right, it's today, tomorrow, yesterday, it's really all one big huge event. this mall we're at opened up at midnight. 80% of the stories opened with it and so far the store managers that we've spoken to said that they're pleased with the traffic. there are certainly folks that camped out around the country all knit and a lot of the retailers are trying to control the chaos. some just letting in 20 folks at a time. an analyst is underwell himmed
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by what he's seen .but the shoppers i've spoken to are telling me a totally different story. they're very happy with what's going on on. and if this is the super bowl of retail, many of these players are already in overtime. >> it's crazy. if you like craziness, it's a good place to be. >> i went at 7:00 to walmart and got out by 8:45. went home, finished homework and i just came out again at 2:45. >> we opened at midnight las n traffic has been more steady this year. >> 147 million americans will shop this weekend. deloitte breaks it down by day with 23% of those surveyed saying they would be out on thanksgiving. that's more than last year's 17%. 63% said they would shop today. slightly less than last year and
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the peak hours seem to be around midnight and then later at about 10:00 a.m. p so a couple hours from now. and if you think about couch commerce and really how online has changed the game, there are interesting things at play. c comuware says every who bought tablets last year are using them this year to shop. but thanksgiving day already very, very strong. >> so have you bought anything yet? >> i actually haven't, but i have caught in thing -- some things have caught my eye. a lot of good sales. a lot of add-ons. so i don't know, i might fall for it, too.
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>> it's hard. i've been out in the smalls and it's hard to avoid it when you're standing out there. the numbers for online retail, i remember back when online retail was first starting out back in the late 1990s, and that's when we used to see numbers like that is correct increases of 25% to 30%. but that's when they were working up a much smaller base. these are big numbers when you're talking about what a big piece of the pie will is now. >> exactly. huge numbers. last year during the holiday season, which is defined as basically thanksgiving day to christmas, we saw ten days of a billion dollars in online sales. that's really impressive. and this year folks think we could see $13 billion or $14 billion days. that's a lot of money. >> a big deal. courtney, thank you. great to see you. and that advantage of being there, buy a few things while you're out. you can knock off some of your holiday shopping. >> it would make me feel better
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about my list. >> exactly. >> joining us on the squawk news line with more, a retail analyst with stifel nicolaus. good morning, richard. >> thanks very much. good morning to you you. >> so how much should we take away from whatever sales figures we get on black friday? there has been a debate about how important the numbers are and what they ultimately indicate. i think back to 2008, you saw shall great numbers come out and then people thought we were at the verge of a rebound and then clearly we weren't. >> it is troublesome. clearly black friday will be a very big day. i've seen my retailers step up the competition. and as a result traffic beginning at 12:01 last night, traffic was very high. excitement at the malls particularly for the younger crowds very high. a new crowd that usually doesn't shop on black friday was out he post-midnight period. and i think that will be a plus.
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but some of that will come out of next week or the next two weeks of business. i don't think you'll see the business continue at this pace by any means. just the opposite. we think you'll be giving some back in the first two weeks of december. and then watch the business reaccelerate into the holiday. >> day in, do you agree? >> i think you always get a lull after black friday. 10% of your sales typically comes from this weekend and then 40% the ten days before christmas. >> richard, who do you like? >> i was impressed with tilly's last night. they were early and very novel with some of their promotions. they had people lining up to get into receive free gift certificates. from a pure traffic standpoint, both arrow and american eagle is doing great jobs. and obviously driving in a lot of traffic. >> one company we don't hear
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about in the context of the holiday season, jcpenney. why is that? >> they weren't in the game last night. doors were dark. >> and was that the right call for them given where they are right now in the cycle, if you will, of trying to transition these stores? >> in my opinion, no. there's a lot of traffic and very attractive mailer that they put out yesterday that is to say thanksgiving day and people in the mall walking by a dark store is simply not good for business. >> dana, what do you think? >> the early openings, the reason why retails are doing it it is market share. you have to be in it to win it. and i think it is the younger people from 12:00 to 6:00. it's the parents from 6:00 to 12:00. >> richard, real quick, losers in all this. >> tough one to call. if you're not in the game, you're out of it. even macy's had a deejay spinning disks last night. maybe you don't get a lot of the kids, but at least they're in
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the game. glechb though we've heard the margins are so compressed and you think about the door buster, people taking losses on some of these things to get people in the doors. >> i think retailers that had 12 months to plan this out, i think there's margin built into enable them to promote at this level. nobody wants to go into the holiday season starting with a loss. and i don't think any of these companies are playing that way. gap would be a is annout here with those great values. but values that have been planned like i said for 12 months. >> richard, we'll wish you a happy post-thanksgiving and holiday season and we thank you for joining us this morning about that. >> thanks very much. comment, questions about anything you see here, e-mail us at our coverage of the american consumer and black friday continues with a key factor to the pocketbook, oil prices. citigroup ahead of global commodities joins us on set. [ penélope ] i found the best cafe in the world.
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we're looking at shoppers in macy's herald square. seems like a lot of people. i don't know. but you have to get your pictures of last year and compare it. oil prices, though, are a key factor. our next guest warns that the days of a commodity bull run are over. ed morris, managing director and head of global commodities reaernr research at citi. we met many life times ago.
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tell us we're about $88 now on oil. >> on wti, which has nothing to do with the real world. >> $110 on brent. >> we think brent will go down 10%, maybe a little more. we have a $90 level for brent, $90 to $100 level. >> why is that? >> we've just gone through almost two year period of really significant amount of disruption, like the embargo against iranian crude. but a lot of it is about a beca had high prices for ten years and the fruits of new investments are coming in and just a lot of oil coming into the market. particularly from north america, but other places, as well. >> what about china? the idea was that china was sort of hoarding oil. are they still doing that? >> they're hoarding in two ve
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senses before some senses. some is for the strategic stockpile. they'll do another 400 million between now and 2020. >> so how does that compare with -- >> we have 700 million. we don't need it any longer because we're producing so much more oil every year. >> domestically. i saw a chart the other day of oil production and oil exports. could we become a net exporter? >> unlikely, but between the u.s. and canada, we will be a net exporter. and i say between ourselves and canada, it's because the canadians can't export their oil anywhere other than the u.s. and their production is going up steadily every year. so they have to only exprt to the u.s. their pipeline politics are worse than ours. they can't build one to the east h. west coast or east coast. >> you talk about the oil and what he 00 happening with iran. iranian oil is not technically off the market. >> actually it is. iranian -- >> i thought we were just not selling it for dollars. >> wie've imposed sanctions on
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countries that buy oil and the european union has banned it. completely banned it. so iran is exporting about a million barrels a day less now than a year ago. so we're where we are without iranian oil. >> and with a lot of disruption, as well. >> did libya come back in full? >> libya is back in full. >> is any other significant player off the market? >> a bunch. the most significant is sudan believe it or not. sudan's had a role in the price run up over the last year, as well. that's about 700,000 barrels a day. yemen is largely off the market. syria is off the market. there's on oil from -- >> how much oil is off the market? >> over a billion barrels. >> mostly made up by the saudis. >> virtually all. they're doing -- >> but they have capacity? >> they claim to have capacity for -- >> they claim.
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always the big issue. >> if cyou come to no morning yu want to say show me. i think it's probably 11 1/2. not a lot. >> and the market really trades on that spare capacity. >> like inventory, sure. >> so to the extent extent saudi has more or lerss, oil prices would come down. >> absolutely. >> so you are predicting a commodity bear market. >> we're saying that the day when you can throw a dart at the dart board and look at any commodity and make money, those days are over. so just as in oil and u.s. natural gas even more so, so, too, in base metals and coal and we're almost -- almost wherever you look other than agriculture and gold which is a little special, supply is coming in faster than demand.
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>> part of the bull market was a portfolio shift. investors decided we need 5% or 10% of our total portfolio in commodities. is that effect over? >> the portfolio effect has become a permanent feature of the market. so the institutional investors find new ways to invest, find new ways to allow them to invest in commodities without the inconvenience of holding materials. so the big initial run was in passive investments going into index funds. the current one is more on exchange traded funds. they have an impact the way index funds do in that if you have a physically backed etf as institutions are buy the etf, there is an inventory set aside. >> and you said $90 in brent next year? >> $90 to $99.
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>> it will have a nine handle on it. and then what about is this a long term downward trend? >> there could be a lot of disruptions. the world is prone to that. but given the pace of growth production in deep water, oil sands in canada and venezuela and in tight oil formation which is have begun in the u.s. and will spread to the rest of the world, i think the current $90 floor to brent prices will become the ceiling five years ahead. >> so an eight handle. >> could be an eight handle. the range is $75 to -- >> this is a call that's in the next month's call, but a five to ten year call. >> it's a five to ten year call. we've got the u.s. now increasing production almost a million barrels a day. >> if that's true, then, dana, we should be betting on the consumer should get a little price break finally. >> which they need. >> and it also speaks well to the users of oil products, right, that whether or not their
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prices as commodities also for example the alcoas of the world and other places like that. >> actually natural gas is where it is. u.s. will be the lowest cost natural gas producer. >> manufacturer is coming back to america for certain energy intensive -- we've talked about that. >> yeah. >> thanks very much. fascinating. >> we still have to talk about steve cohen. >> and when we come back, we'll head to the chairs and this is a pretty important story. it's one that could have some implications for s.a.c. capital. we'll talk about that and also maybe more about the consumer and maybe even our wish list. let's take a live look at concord mills mall in north carolina. crowds are out there, too. even the little kids up early. if you are one of the millions of men
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in in our "squawk" sports news today thanksgiving means football and there were three nfl games, the new england patriots exploding to route the new york jets 49-19. >> i was ready to go to bed last night, ready to turn the game off, it was 0-0 after the first quarter but it got to be comical so my son and i kept watching it. >> my brothers were laughing, too, even though matt had his
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jets jersey on so i think they gave up at some point. >> i never watched the game because it was funny before but this is the first game in my life -- >> at some point it became, wow. >> comical. >> this was pretty bad. >> i don't get it. >> they won last week. this win was the 200th victory for bill belichick, and the redskins beat the cowboys 38-31, rookie quarterback robert griffin it was the third return to his native texas for a four-touchdown passing game it was washington's win against the cowboys and the most exciting, houston beats detroit 34-31. shorts threw a challenge flag that negated the automatic
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review and called for unsportsman like conduct as well. we are in chairs and the one story we've been talking about all morning, this is the story of what's happening behind the scenes in that case where prosecutors are going up against matthew martoma to try to turn him, this is all part of a plan to turn him on his boss, steve cohen at s.a.c. capital. big implication there is. >> what is so interesting to me they arrested him on tuesday, we didn't know whether they'd try to flip him on steve cohen. they tried to flip him earlier a year ago, they went to him and said tell us about this trade, there was a good 20-minute phone call they have, they don't have the call this self but they know there was a phone call between him and steve cohen before this trade. you have to imagine if you're going to make a $1 billion trade steve is going to say why are we going to make this trade. you have to say something. you can't say i have a feeling,
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my gut tells me i should get out of this thing. i think he could flip. >> he didn't flip a year ago, now he could face 7 to 20 years. he knows that as of tuesday the case is stronger. i think it's coming from the prosecutors trying to put pressure on him. it says on matthew martoma, it says up at the top -- >> i can read it two people. >> are you kidding? >> steve cohen's people suggested this is a witch hunt. >> you think? >> i don't know. >> i read it either coming from the steve cohen camp or the martoma camp to say i'm not flipping. >> it's a message. >> we're looking at all three. >> i don't know, but the thing that was interesting on this though as you were starting to say martoma found out on tuesday the case against him is going to be much tougher because the
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university professor who was involved in these trials, where they apparently got the inside information has flipped on him. he's going to be, and this also points out that matthew martoma is married with children and going to be looking at 20 years in prison if he goes with some of these. >> the key here, steve cohen can make the trade but the key is did he know about the inside information. >> correct. >> that's going to be hard to prove. >> we know he made the trade, they flipped from long to seriously short. >> the trade was made and prior to that trade there was information given by the doctor to matthew. >> does he have to disgorge this money anyway, in other words if he made money unknowingly on illegal information. >> at galleant they did not. coming up we've got macy's ceo terry lundgren joining us soon to give us his take on black friday ands prospects for
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getting details on retail. getting details on retail. we're crunching the numbers and we'll tell you who is ahead of the game as the busy shopping season kicks off. >> santa's coming to town. >> santa! >> the shopping clock is ticking. >> merry christmas, ho, ho, ho. >> no! >> macy's ceo terry lundgren is here with what consumers are in for in the coming weeks. >> and inside america's biggest mall to find out the latest trends this season. >> i love the smell of commerce in the morning. >> the second hour of "squawk
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box" starts right now. ♪ it's the most wonderful time of the year ♪ you have a yule log behind you. >> welcome to "squawk box" at cnbc, happy holidays and happy post thanksgiving. >> and you have on a sweater it's perfect. >> it all works. i'm andrew ross sorkin. becky quick is here and steve liesman is here. >> bea to go up in flames, andrew, literally and/sore figuratively. >> it happens pretty much every morning when joe is here. take a look at futures this morning as we get started ahead of this, dow would open up about 18 points higher, s&p two points higher and the nasdaq higher as well. it is the official start to the holiday shopping season and the national retail federation expects a 4.1% increase in retail sales this year. the flames make reading the headlines a little strange. >> somebody have a fire
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extinguisher. >> the nrf saying that 147 million people will shot today through sunday, it's hard to get through the headlines and not laugh. that number down from 152 million on black friday. the new york stock exchange, nasdaq and cme, they close at 1:00 eastern so we have a half day. metals are finishing at 12:30 eastern and nymex closes an hour later and as i said earlier we're happy to have her in studio sharing her thoughts on retail and a lot more, dana telsey, her thoughts on retail coming up in a moment. >> i expected to you pop off your shoes. ♪ it's a beautiful day in the neighborhood ♪ warm and cozy. >> that would require a cardigan. >> he takes off his jacket, puts on a cardigan. ♪ it's the most wonderful time
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♪ of the year >> don't we have a show "chicago fire" we could put on here to put out the fire? best buy is one of the stores that needs a strong start to the holiday shopping season. jane wells joins us from a best buy in conoga park, california. jane has been showing up with all of the shoppers, who is are w you? >> what's your name? >> anket. >> reporter: how long have you been waiting in line? >> more than two hours. >> reporter: the big deal is the line is taking forever. what are you buying? >> i'm buying a dslr camera. >> reporter: you came from india to buy this. >> reporter: i did. >> they have a thing called the internet. >> reporter: this is not the experience i was expecting. >> reporter: you get lines like this back home i suppose? >> yes.
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>> reporter: as raul shows you how this line snakes around, a crazy person but also maybe someone who is exhausted and with a dry sense of humor is first in line. how many tickets did you get? >> six. >> reporter: what are you planning on getting? >> tv for sure and probably a laptop. >> reporter: and the rest, i don't know, might sell them to you, jane. >> reporter: jason mcclellan got here 98 hours before the doors opened, gave him first choice at picking tickets, like a 40 inch tv which retails for $420 but for today is $180. these are tickets some people didn't sell to folks down the line. is it worth it? how much did you spend? >> 355 to be exact. >> reporter: how much do you think you saved? >> probably about 700. >> reporter: and what are you going to do with it? >> go to disney land. >> reporter: oh, yeah.
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$700 he saved divided by the 98 hours, works out to $7.14 an hour, less than minimum wage but best buy is tweeting you don't have to subject yourself to this. not a fan of lines or crowds? no worries shop black friday deals from your couch except you won't get the $180 40" tv only in store and only if you're waiting a long time. how long have you been waiting in line. >> three hours. >> reporter: is it worth it in. >> kind of, yeah, it is. >> reporter: there you go, back to you. >> jane, it's steve. i know you're concentrating on the doorbusters but supposedly one of the products of the season is supposed to be the tablet. have you gone over to the tablet, i'm interested into whether or not is interested in windows. >> reporter: i haven't seen many
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tablets. it's blu-ray players and tvs, people buying the video game stuff. i haven't seen it. >> dana is the tablet -- >> supposed to be one of the hot gifts of the holiday season. >> reporter: anybody buying a tablet? anybody buying a tablet? anybody? anybody buying a tablet? tablet computer, anybody? >> nobody. >> wow. >> nobody! >> the sound of silence. >> reporter: raise your hand if you're buying a tablet. [ crickets ] the computer section has its own line, we'll go into the computer section. thank you. >> go check it out, jane. we need some actual live consumer research here. >> jane is awesome. >> who else would turn to the entire crowd? i would never do that. >> way to go, jane. >> fantastic.
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>> we need a live report from the tablet section. >> she'll give us one in the next hour. macy's opening at midnight and terry lundgren joins us now. great to see you this morning. >> thanks, how are you doing? >> very well, thank you. this is a huge kickoff sea fson why don't you tell us how things have been going so far. >> so far so good. i was here of course as i'm always here for the opening at midnight at macy's herald square and we had a record crowd again this year. it was a record crowd last year but that crowd was exceeded at this store certainly this morning. i waited at the front door for about 18 minutes and the line never stopped from pouring in on the broadway door. i finally said i'm going upstairs. i can't just stand here. i was directing traffic and telling people to find the shoes and they're saying where are the
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blenders, i'm like a director, i had to move upstairs and see what was going on. unbelievable crowds. interestingly a different crowd, it's young, international, obviously the tourists are in this store, huge tourists at the midnight opening. >> you did special things to get out the crowds, you had a dj there? >> we do and by the way you mentioned it but the parade is such a great draw for tourism and really does help the city in many, many ways but that really kicked it off. we had a fabulous parade yesterday and people were lining up, went out to dinner, did their thing. boy, were they here. i circled the building at 11:30 and saw the gigantic crowds forming and you could hear every language you could imagine was being spoken in the lines. >> it's been getting earlier, when you open the stores, would you ever open the store right after the parade? >> i hate to say never about
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anything, becky, but as long as i'm around, i have a problem with that because i have committed to always being at the opening and i've done it all my entire career so this is about me now. no, not really. i am always here but the reality is, i think midnight's plenty enough. we do something that other retailers don't do, the macy's thanksgiving day parade so our day is filled with that and our employees after the parade our employees are home having thanksgiving dinner with their families and getting here at midnight is plenty enough to ask of them. i'm satisfied we have the right strategy. >> terry that's a good point on the issue of employees and labor. there's been issues at walmart and other stores where they have moved things earlier. how much of an issue is that for you in terms of thinking about this particular subject? >> well, it hasn't really been an issue for us. i was wondering about the midnight opening, when we tried it. two yeenchz in test stores and
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last year and we're hiring 80,000 employees to work in the quarter. you're going to be working at midnight on thanksgiving day and that was part of the deal when they signed up, they knew that coming in. however we offered it to our full time employees because they should have first choice and they wanted to work so the majority of the people who got here at midnight were our full time employees because they pointed out they wanted to be here early so they could have a day of shopping on black friday starting at 8:00 a.m. when they finish, so it was a different response than i expected but a very good response. >> terry you point out that the new york flagship store is different than other areas of the country, a lot of tourists who are there, a lot of people internationally. when you look across the country and see what's been happening at all the macy's, where do you get the sense the american consumer is now? we've heard so many big ceos worried about the fiscal cliff.
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has that shown up with consumers? >> i don't think so. not yet anyway. obviously i worry about that. i think business worries about that and i'm very hopeful that our leaders in washington are going to come together and reach across the aisle and work on this subject because this is not a republican or democratic problem. this is an american problem we need to address and respond to one way or the other. i don't know the solutions about how to go about it but i believe we need to address the subject. i don't think that's in the mind of most consumers today. you know our business has been outstanding for the last 11 quarters in sales and earnings and i suspect that our fourth quarter will continue with a positive performance so i don't think it's hit the average consumer. i think it's hit the minds of people in the business world. >> when do you think it would hit the consumer? is it something that if talks continue through december 15th and beyond, does that start to create a problem for you? >> i think if it gets to the
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point where we don't believe we're actually going to come to any agreement that would be a major problem for our consumer confidence, but i'm a bit of an optimist in general but i'm a strong believer i think our people in washington, our leaders in washington really do want to make progress, they want to resolve the issue. it's not just a fiscal cliff. what will we do after that and how do we make progress at chipping away this gigantic debt our country faces so we have a deadline certainly but we have a longer term issue we've all got to work together and the only way that happens is if republicans and democrats work together toward a broader solution and so that's what i'm hopeful will take place. >> terry, quick question about your competitors. you're a leader in this space. we talk about jcpenney and their efforts to turn themselves around and perhaps take a couple of notes from some of the things you're doing. how do you look at what ron johnson is doing? >> i think ron's trying some new
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things, trying some different approaches and it's going to take time for that to, whether customers vote to see if they like it or don't like it. we had a crystal clear strategy. we organized the entire company. we have people now living in 69 cities around the country that are former buyers and former planning executives that are leading us in terms of what we should be buying for minnesota versus what we should be buying for detroit, versus miami beach. that's such a rare and unique structure that no one has this today and it gives us a great advantage. i really do believe that's what's driving our sales is the giant purchasing power that we have as being the largest seller of ralph lauren or michael kors, any other brand but executing the decisions on a local level, size, color, shapes, weights of fabric, all of those things being done at a local level, that's the difference i think macy's is creating versus our
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competitors. >> terry, what about omni channel, different stores online and now you're shipping from store to door. >> yes. dana, i love this. we are so focused on the omni channel consumer, the customer doing the research first on her phone and in here touching the merchandise and then she might go home or go to work and execute the transaction, you know, touching multiple ways of shopping. that is by far our best customer. that's our most productive customer, that's a customer who is spending more, more engaged with our brand so we are all over this subject and we're enabling the transaction at the point of sale, if we don't have in this store we can find it for you, it may come from another store. that's a huge opportunity for us. >> terry, what is selling today? >> today it's definitely in the clothingcategories, the rampage boots at $19.99, you should see
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what that table looks like upstairs. all 147 million who are supposed to be shopping today are up there on the shoe floor right now. that's been a big hit, $49.99 cashmere sweaters, high quality, you got to make sure you understand there are different levels. the cashmere sweaters are selling like crazy and home furnishings, luggage and blenders and small electrics and the like that are all selling. those are out of the box areas that are selling very quickly, and jewelry. >> terry, quickly on this omni channel business. >> what is omni channel? >> in stores, the internet, go online. >> but my question is actually do you worry they come in the store, they feel the goods, go online, look for a better price for the exact same product and buy it else where? >> i'm on violencely awa obviou that. if you're not competitive shame on you.
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the consumer should get the best value. we give the best value so i have no fear about that strategy. we worked hard to make sure we're incredibly competitive so my omni channel business is fantastic. this year i'll do over $2 billion at alone. we are benefiting from that strategy but you have to be price competitive and we are. >> terry, thank you very much. i know this is a really big day for you and you've been running yourself ragged so we really appreciate the time. >> pleasure. make sure when you're done with work get down to macy's. >> i'm going to buy that coat. >> andrew still doesn't have a coat yet. he's got a sweater on. >> we had this conversation last year and do it again this year. >> see how excited talking about boots. >> got to be excited about boots. he's a great salesman. comments and questions about anything you see here on "squawk" shoot us an e-mail, follow us on twitter @squawkcnbc.
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coming up next guest host mark fisher of mbf asset management, we'll talk markets in 2013 and what to expect from washington as we approach the fiscal cliff. it is black friday, 2012 and "squawk" is coming right back after this. ♪ [ female announcer ] today, it's not just about who lives in the white house, it's about who lives in the yellow house, the green, and the apartment house, too. today we not only honor the oval office, but we honor the cubicle, and the home office as well. because today it's about all of us. and no matter who you are, you're the commander-in-chief of your own life. ♪
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welcome welcome back. dow futures up by 20 points, s&p
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futures up by just over 2. hasn't been a ton of volatility, what you expect on the day after thanksgiving when you have a half day of trading. the stock and bond market open until 1:00 p.m. today. let's talk markets and fiscal cliff. joining us guest host mark fisher of mbf corporation and managing member of monroe. happy holidays. >> happy holidays. >> we've been talking about the fiscal cliff and its impact on corporations but more importantly perhaps consumers and what is ultimately going to happen there. so far we think it's hit corporations, that seems to be the sense. but not consumers. what are you handicapping will happen in the next month on the face kag cliff? i think, i'm worried eventually it will hit consumers before christmas. >> i think this deal will get made but i think that's, whether or not -- i think a deal will get made but the bigger problem is next year, i think there will be cutbacks next year regardless of whether a deal is made or not
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made on the fiscal cliff. >> let's unpack this, as they say. so first you believe that a deal gets made when? >> december. >> december, so we will not go into january without a deal of some sort. >> if we do, everybody in congress is out of a job so i think that a deal gets made for sure. >> that's much more optimistic. >> christmas will come then? >> christmas comes. >> but the other thing he's saying is something bernanke said last week no matter what happens, if they resolve the fiscal cliff, federal spending will be a drag on growth no matter what happens. >> you can look at, i mean i look at charts of the s&p versus treasury bonds and treasury notes and the effect of qe3 and the velocity of money slowing down. because the government will spend less next year the consumer will feel it by the second half of next year for sure. >> is the market therefore fairly priced, underpriced,
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overpriced, given this prediction? >> the market is a big statement. >> let's go stock market then first. >> the stock market has two different things going on, one, you've got multiples i would think are going to contract over time. on the other hand, so many people are underinvested and there's so much money out there, you've got this battle between underinvestment and people wanting to buy things on the cheap, i think there's going to be price earnings multiple contraction over the next three to five years. i think the stock market may go plus or minus down 15, up 15. >> up or down 15 is a lot. >> over the next five years? i don't think so. >> you think in the next five years the top is 15%? >> i don't think the top is, i think where it will end up, outside where it can go up 20 or down 20. it will settle in the range, i don't think it's going up or down more than 15%. i think it's overhyped. i think there are certain sectors that will go crazy over the next couple of years. >> we'll keep you here and given
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that prediction, 15% up or down what do you do in that crazy environment to live in. feels a little japanese. >> interesting. we'll check futures right now for the next five seconds, are we going to do that, guys? there you go. 18, that's unch, plus 18 on the dow, is that unchanged, becky? >> yes. >> there is a shortened trading day, bonds and equities close at 1:00 p.m. still to come going to the mall of america expecting record turnout today and the weekend, with he speak to the executive vice president, what she's seeing in the nation's largest mall. >> time now for today's aflac trivia question, which wise-cracking feline starred in a comic strip created by george gately in 1973? the answer when cnbc's "squawk box" continues. electricity? dental bills...
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answer toe now the answer to today's aflac trivia question. which wise-cracking feline started in a comic strip created by george gately in 1973? the answer, "heathcliff the cat." >> aflac.
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>> we got that one wrong here at the desk. if you have comments, questions, anything you see here on cnbc shoot us an e-mail. >> i thought it was garfield. >> garfield was your guess. >> that was my guess. >> follow us on twitter as well. coming up next we'll head to the mall of america in bloomington, minnesota, for an update of how the retailers are faring there. monday on "squawk" we've got motorola ceo greg brown, part of the fix the debt campaign, we'll get his thought on fixing the fiscal cliff and what it means for his company and the economy. "squawk" is coming back in two minutes. want to spend less and retire with more? then don't get nickle and dimed by high cost investments and annoying account fees. at e-trade, our free easy-to-use online tools and experienced retirement specialists can help you build a personalized plan. and with our no annual fee iras and a wide range of low cost investments, you can execute the plan you want at a low cost. so meet with us, or go to
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welcome back to "squawk box" everyone on this black friday. today is the official start to the holiday shopping season and the national retail federation is looking for a 4.1% increase in retail sales this year and they're off. you see them heading through the sales increase is down from 5.6% back in 2011. the nrf says 141 million will shop today through sunday, down from 152 million last year.
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we spoke with macy's ceo terry lundgren with his expectations for the holiday shopping season. >> so far so good. i was here of course as i'm always here for the opening at midnight at macy's herald square and we had a record crowd again this year, it was a record crowd last year but that crowd was exceeded at this store certainly this morning. i waited at the front door for about 18 minutes and the line never stopped from pouring in on the broadway doors. >> lundgren also spoke with us about the fiscal cliff, a huge issue he's concerned about but says at this point it has not bled over into the consumer and hoping to see some resolution between now and the holidays. the nyse, the nasdaq and the cme are closing at 1:00 eastern time today, a half day of trading. as for the commodities markets the comex metals finishes trading at 12:30 eastern. nymex closes at 1:30 eastern an
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hour later. >> thank you, becky. check out the markets this morning, we'll go through some boards quick and see how things are setting up, dow jones would open up 20 points higher, s&p higher 2.5 higher and the nasdaq higher as well. as we look at the oil boards and take a look and see what's going on over there, let's go to european markets first, ftse up marginally as is the cac and the dax, not much to say there. i said look see. is that okay? and hang seng closed up, shanghai composite up and the nikkei up a lot. what was that about? >> closed. >> they were closed up a lot. oh, this is wednesday's close and it is closed. that's how little i know this morning. so this explains a lot. they kept saying to me closed, closed. it's closed but it's not really closed. wti crude 87.26 down marginally
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and brent crude down marginally. quick look at the ten-year, 1.647%. >> right in the range. i'm neutral on the ten-year. >> not a lot of movement in the currency world and let's take a quick look at gold as we move on, $1,733.60. >> ice castle made from 4 million gallons of water to a life size ginger bread holiday house, mall of america is pulling out all the stops this holiday season. joining us is mall of america's business development executive vice president maureen bausch. good morning. >> good morning, happy holidays. >> happy holidays. give us an idea of the traffic and how excited people are. >> i think people are very excited. we had about 30,000 people at midnight, that was a record for us. people are more organized this year because we published about
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200 discounts on our websites so they could really preplan their trip, their adventure so to speak. >> and so 30,000, how many was it last year? >> it was about 20 last year so we were up 10,000. >> where do these people come from, do they drive down from canada? >> yes, they do actually. they come from all over. we're seeing a big influx in international visitor this is year and i think we have to credit the u.s. and their first marketing campaign in international markets since 1968, brand usa really hit it hard and we're seeing the effects. lots of international visitors. >> so do you have a sense, maureen, of what people are buying, what interests them and where the deals are? >> yes, we do. the average discount is about 40%, they certainly love the microsoft tablet, anything apple. >> huh. >> bond number nine at in order stram, lego, american girl, they
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head right for their favorite products and try to get the deal. >> now i understand you're also incorporating twitter into helping people park. explain that. >> yes, it's kind of the gps to the mall. if you tell us where you're coming from, we'll answer you in real time and tell you how to get here, about how many minutes it will take and where to park. it's almost like air traffic control right into the mall. >> maureen, what is this new rule you have this year, teenagers can't be shopping by themselves? >> well, actually we've had this since 1996, it's the parental escort policy. ♪ uh-oh, i think the light show just went on. i'm sorry about that. >> it's better tv, keep going, maureen. >> okay, that's our holiday light show behind me. anyway, it's our parental escort policy, we've had it since 1996,
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if you're under the age of 16 you need to be accompanied by a parent or adult over the age of 21. >> that's all year round? >> no, it's actually on holidays and weekends. >> and is that strictly enforced? are you carding people? >> absolutely. we have someone at every single door and for 12 years and it works very, very well. the retailers like it, actually the kids like it. it's a really nice environment. >> are you a dancer in the light show, maureen? >> am i -- i'd like to be, yes, that's my next job. >> maureen, which are the most crowded retailers? where is the traffic? >> you know, h&m had a huge line, they opened at 10:00. best buy of course, a big hit, microsoft, apple, and then it kind of spreads out through the rest of the mall. >> maureen, go dance. thanks for joining us. from the light show at the mall
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of america. >> that's right. when we come back we have the stories -- >> they planned that. >> she looked like she got caught by surprise. we'll have the headlines you should be watching plus the names you need to know about as we work through the most important season for retailers. right now the retail index over the last 52 weeks, not a bad move. "squawk" will be back in two minutes. [ male announcer ] introducing the new dell xps 12.
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i heard you guys can ship ground for less than the ups store. that's right. i've learned the only way to get a holiday deal is to camp out. you know we've been open all night. is this a trick to get my spot? [ male announcer ] break from the holiday stress. save on ground shipping at fedex office.
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today today holiday central is open for business. who is winning and who is losing in the contest for consumer dollars, all day today on cnbc. ♪ well you know that it's going to be all right ♪ ♪ i think it's gonna be all right ♪ ♪ everything will always be all right ♪ ♪ when we go shopping ♪ well you know that it's going to be all right ♪ i don't know who sings the song but we are covering today's retail rush from coast to coast. courtney reagan is in dayton, ohio, out with the crowds who have been there since way before they should have been this morning. what's it been shaping to look like as the sun is coming up? >> reporter: becky i see a little bit of a lull in the crowd now which is somewhat what we expected.
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remember we saw stores open at 8:00, 9:00 last night, midnight another big rush full of folks, but then the store managers here say it's getting a little slow and they expected to get a little bit better around 10:00 a.m. deborah weinsbeck works for citigroup and says consumers are focusing aggressively on the electronics promotions particularly at walmart, a one-hour guarantee, that cut down on some of the chaos. she also saw a surprising excitement in traffic at saks off fifth. black friday isn't a day we see higher end shoppers participate in. saks off fifth caters more to the outlet shopper and chuck romm works for deutsche bank and he's underwhelmed with what he's seen. it looks pretty good here, it's
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a pretty big tradition in ohio. >> courtney, sorry, we're taking a few hits with your microphone but we'll talk to you next hour. i want to ask you about the story in the "the journal" some of the black friday deals aren't much better than some of the other deals you see. >> we can turn to dana telsey and talk stocks. maybe you have an answer. we all read the story saying that actually you can find better prices on other days. >> seems like you can certainly find similar prices as you go through the season. it will probably be the week before christmas that you'll be able to get as competitive deals but right now these doorbusters are something different. >> let's go winners and losers in the stock market retail. >> look what terry lundgren, the rampage footwear, who is the king of footwear, steve madden. we'll see a good footwear christmas and holiday season for steve madden. >> 43.21 on the stock.
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what does that look like 12 months out? you have a price target? >> 53, 55. >> wow. >> it should have a nice rise given the fact they have more brands, international opportunity and retail opportunity. the color in gap, bright colors works for gap and something else in 2013, that's margin recovery also so you'll have margin recovery, the color cycle still working. >> is gap back after a very long hiatus from the world? >> it's back for now. one of the things with apparel you learn to see it's back for a couple of years and then it kind of subsides a bit and comes back again so we're seeing a recovery at gap and i think that keeps going. >> where is abercrombie in all this. we talk about them for lots of reasons. >> abercrombie had a good third quarter and their product, the women's tops business had an inflection point, we have easy margin comparisons and sales are still negative, we still have
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weak sales but less negative than it was, and that's what stock market prices love, less negative comparisons makes the stock prices go up. >> how do you feel about the limited? >> look at bath & body works, they introduced true red, you have an international story and a domestic story. >> and they don't have gisele anymore. what about the losers? >> it's been really tough, everyone is watching jcpenney closely, we're watching companies some of the discounters overall closely, too. >> are you positive or negative on jcp? >> you don't know yet. it's a story still to be told. the numbers have not been good. >> you consider the stock price an option value at $17.48? >> it is an option value but i need to get less negative earnings, i need to get demand for the product there, i need traffic. my channel checkers, traffic started out okay but not as great in some of their stores
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lately. >> any others we should look at? >> we want to make sure kohl's does better. we want to see kohl's improve. >> mark do you watch the retailers? >> only thing i can think about is jcpenney. >> what do you think? >> charts don't lie. i think that's going the way of sears. i think there's a good chance strategy takes too long to unfold. >> andrew wrote a good column laying out some of the issues they've had along the way and the biggest question is how much patience do traders have at this point. >> i think that the stocks here too long, i mean i think it's probably $10 next year. >> you're not putting a call on bankruptcy. >> no. >> i hate to say the "b" word. >> no, i'm just saying i think people are giving mr. johnson
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leeway but i think people's patience is wearing thin. >> okay. >> all right, dana will be with us for the rest of the hour and mark will give us final thoughts when we come back after this. later we'll be talking about find, buy and transform fixer-uppers into dream homes. their shows one of the biggest on hgtv, here to talk housing and more as we see a turn in the housing market. jonathan and drew scott will join us at 8:40 eastern time. you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc, your home for black friday updates and market news.
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♪ on the ♪ on the first day of christmas my true love gave to me ♪ ♪ a partridge in a pear tree ♪ on the second day of christmas my true love gave to me ♪ ♪ two turtle doves and a partridge in a pear tree ♪ shares of research in motion surging in the premarket trading. the stock was up more than 17% in trading in toronto yesterday. the catalyst was rising optimism around rim's soon to be launched blackberry ten device. ha, ha, ha! >> feeling exonerated, aren't you, beck why i? >> i feel there's a little bit of hope out there, rim shares boosted $15 from $12. thompson said there is more money to be made in the stock of the make or break new line launch of devices. there is a little bit of hope
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out there. >> david einhorn made a play but i thought he might have gotten out of it. i don't know if he's a beneficiary of the move. back to our guest host mark fisher, mbf corporation, managing manager of monroe capital and mbf trading. someone e-mailed in and said you cut him off at the most interesting part of the interview. you said the world over the next five years would be up or down 15% and i said what do you do in that environment and then i said we have to go to commercial. what do you do in. >> one, you settle volatility and if you can handle the stomach pain of every time the market looks great you sell and every time it looks terrible you buy it, you made the comment about japan going nowhere, i think we're going relatively nowhere. there will be some sectors like the gentleman from citibank on before ted morris talking about import prices of oil. i think he's wrong but even if
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he's right or wrong the refinery stocks over the next couple of years explode because we may be producing more oil in this country but we're not building any new refineries. you look at the stock prices of the companies, they've gone up 40%, 50%, 60% for a year and they're there for a reason, but i think that the next three to five years we go basically sell all the big rallies, buy every big dip. >> the average trader who is supposed to just buy and hold, that is a failing strategy over the next five years? >> yes, unless you've got it, unless like you said david einhorn or david tepper or another david i -- murphy, i think you know. >> it's important to point out the dynamic you're talking about and requires the investor to make a judgment on that dynamic. there's two opposing forces, one is multiple contraction on the one end because you think that we're going to have, growth is not going so be so great.
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>> right. >> on the other hand it's a reallocation dynamic which is tons of people are piled into treasuries and some of that money has to come out of treasuries and go into stocks. you seemed to be saying that those forces are balanced, not entirely clear to me that's the case. why do you think they're balanced? >> what ends up happening is just like you said, steve, in the market because every time there's a dip you're going to see this money come from the sidelines to buy because they're underinvested. on the other hand i think the market's going nowhere because of growth so every time the market seems to pick its head up, i think you get people that just realize because there's a multiple contraction you have to sell, and you'll see this over and over again. >> maybe i'm crazy here -- >> i'll probably crazy. >> we'll let dana be the judge, part of the multiple is the expectation of cash, so that if people perceive there's more money coming into the market, there's a multiple on top of
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that as part of that. >> i would agree. >> the multiple contraction may not be completely tied to the expectation that somebody is here to take me out. maybe the net effect is positive. it's not crazy. >> there's exogenous factor. there are other issues that will buffer the market on both sides. like i said if you believe in businesses which is what the stock market is all about, you welcome dips because it gives you a chance to buy things at a better price. >> the fear and greed timing strategy right now, fiscal cliff is upon us, is this a great buying opportunity, is that how you look at this? >> the markets rallied 45 from the low. i hate to say this, when you guys panic on tv, is when you got to do it. right now we're doing nothing,
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there's no euphoria and no panic. you sit there and just -- >> mark, we have seen a bill sell-off over the last two weeks. >> yes. i think that again, like i said any 10% dip, and 10% rally will get sold. the market is going to get boring in terms of rotation. >> what is your view of the consumer here? >> i just mentioned i don't know where they get the money for 30,000 people to go out and just buy, i have no idea. >> wages are doing a little better. we did 5.6% last year with 9% unemployment. i understand the participation rate is down so that's a factor but not the entire factor. the unemployment rate is down because a few million people got jobs so that's important. why are we only going to do 1.4% this year if there's more people employed? >> overall you have to look at prices. you think about the prices less this year than there were last year, if you're getting 50% and
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60% off that's the concern. but we are going to have inventory levels are lean, it will be a better margin year for the holiday season and more profitable christmas. >> dana, stay where you are. mark, happy holidays, appreciate it very much. i hope you're wrong but you may be right. >> i hope i'm wrong, too. when we come back we'll be calling the property brothers, you buy a fixer-upper, turn it into your dream home, it's a fantastic idea and makes better television. the brothers taking hgtv by storm and giving us some valuable property tips this morning, they are our special guests in the next hour. ♪ mr. grinch you're a bad banana with a greasy black peel ♪ [ male announcer ] this december, remember --
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you can stay in and share something... ♪ ♪ ...or you can get out there with your friends and actually share something. ♪ the lexus december to remember sales event is on, offering some of our best values of the year. this is the pursuit of perfection.
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they are ready to shop. they are ready to shop. will american consumers drop money at the cash registers. >> holiday central. we're going to give you the feel of shopping without leaving the comfort of your home. live reports from stores and malls from coast to coast. plus a special holiday realty check. >> this would work for you?
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>> absolutely. >> we're raising the roof with hgtv's property brothers, jonathan and drew scott as the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ ♪ ooh, merry christmas ♪ christmas comes this time each year ♪ welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc, first in business worldwide. i'm becky quick along with andrew ross sorkin and steve liesman. joe is off this morning. he'll be back with us on monday morning. our guest host is veteran retail analyst dana telsey who has had a lot to add to the conversation. we have a team of reporters at retail locations across the country. courtney reagan is at the mall at fairfield commons in dayton, ohio, jane wells hanging out at a best buy in california and hampton pearson outside a walmart in woodlawn. you've been checking out the deals and people coming through, what is your sense of the situation so far?
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>> reporter: you know what, becky, what i've been impressed with is the steady amount of traffic that i've seen. this mall opened up at midnight, we've seen steady traffic and everyone seems pretty well contained. it doesn't seem as if we've had any big events this year as far as safety concerns and that's really good news. remember a lot of the doorbusters started on thursday so that's helped some of the crowd control and we're hearing some retailers actually started by only letting in 20 folks in at a time or so, just to try to curtail that crowd. now walmart offered those doorbusters starting at 8:00 and then again at 10:00. at 10:00 it was a one-hour guarantee and if you didn't get it within that hour, if they happened to run out of inventory you got a rain check and you could get it at a later time. that helped. people weren't quite as feisty because they knew they would be able to get it. as we're checking in around the country with some of our retail analysts so far it seems like traffic and excitement is pretty
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good. citi's deborah weiswig noted she was impressed with saks off fifth, not a retailer you think about on black friday but one to consider. the shoppers are saying, some of them regret starting as early as they did this year. take a listen. >> we started -- >> way too early. >> thursday night, normally we do about 3:00, 4:00 in the morning. last year i started at 3:30, 4:00. it was crowded but i think the earlier they've been starting i think the crowds are more spread out over a period of time. >> reporter: when it comes to if the doorbusters are really worth it, wsl's strategic ceo wendy leibman knows consumers can get better deals before black friday and later in the season. today is the day where you know that christmas is officially in the air, so they get up, they
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stand in line, and they know that they may not be getting the absolute best deal of the season, but for many, it does still seem to be worth it, and online is still a significant component. it's not cyber monday but many people don't have to wait anymore. retailers offer the doorbusters online. look at some of the couch commerce numbers we've got, ibm says online sales were up 18% year over year on thanksgiving day, compuware says retailers are doing better job with performance of the websites, pages are loading faster and the ipad traffic up 23% on retail website this is year so you bought the tablet last year, you're using it now. becky? >> courtney thank you very much. let's get things over to jane wells standing by as well. >> reporter: guys, you wanted me to go over to the tablet and computer part of the store so i have, and they don't sell microsoft surfaces here, steve.
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microsoft i'm told doesn't want to put it in retailers that compete with other companies that are using its operating systems so they have had doorbuster deals here on the samsung galaxy, they had an online door buster for older models of ipad. this is the part where i asked, is anybody here buying a tablet? anybody? anybody buying a tablet? no. so i am here in the tablet area and i'm hearing labtops are doing better than tablets so i don't know what to tell you about that. >> jane, i got tell you, i was told by our tech reporter, jonathan forte this was going to be the hot product this year, i think dana confirmed the tablet was supposed to be the hot product. i don't know, maybe you're breaking news that the tablet is a bust this year. >> reporter: or it's not the hot doorbuster product. again the only doorbusters they had were older model ipads and the samsung galaxy. they're doing well but nobody's breaking down the door to buy
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them. in the meantime i have to tell you -- well there's $70 on the galaxy and $60 for an ipad or ipad 2 with wifi. but i have other stuff to talk about quickly. >> go for it, jane. >> reporter: as much as best buy strategizes for this day, so do the shoppers. listen to this. how long have you been doing this? >> since i came to college four years ago. >> reporter: how long are you going to be in college? >> four more years. >> hopefully only one more year. >> reporter: all right, that's jonathan talkington and his seven friends. they got here tuesday nights, snapped photos entertaining themselves playing x-box on a 42 inch tv they got black friday at best buy last year. what is the strategy? you come away with six tickets each. what do do you? >> i'm buying a bunch of stuff for myself so do what you want with it. >> reporter: all six to eight
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things are for yourself? >> why not? >> reporter: really? >> no, not really. sell it on the internet, make a little bit of money for the holidays. >> reporter: they can cover their costs that way because they were so of toward the front of the line they could have their pick of the coupons or reservation tickets that best buy hands out for their big, big doorbusters when they got inside. guys back to you. >> jane wells our tablet expert, thank you for bringing all this to us. we'll go coast to coast to talk about walmart. walmart employees are planning a series of walkout across the nation during the critical black friday event. hampton pearson joins us outside of a walmart in woodlawn, maryland. hampton? >> reporter: first of all you can see behind me the parking lot is fairly empty. number one, this is probably the biggest lull in the overnight shopping here at this particular walmart. we are told that busloads of about 250 to 300 pro-union protesters are on their way here within the half hour, so there's really two agendas.
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you've got the 4,500 u.s. stores that are not unionized, and so organized labor seeing a chance to make inroads with the 1.4 million walmart employees, then walmart looks at black friday in terms of the 35 million black friday shoppers they had this time last year, when this all comes together, basically the unions wanting to make a point that walmart employees are underpaid an don't have the greatest benefits in the world, and/or those who now may want to walk off the job for a brief period of time should not have to deal with any issues as far as retaliation. on the flipside, however, we've been here since about 4:30 this morning. we talked to some of those early shoppers, and they didn't have a lot of opinions about whether or not walmart workers are underpaid or not, but we did find one of those customers who was incredibly satisfied with both the deal and the service he got in the pre-dawn hours. >> nine times out of ten, ten
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times out of ten i'm at walmart, most of the time the employees are very good, they help you, they help you very quickly and you're almost in and out of the store, with all the lanes they have, all the registers and stuff. >> reporter: and the protest that's going to take place within the next half hour basically it will be a rolling caravan. these folks will be here for about 45 minutes to an hour, then move on to other walmart stores in the area. back to you guys. >> okay, hampson pearson thank you for that and happy thanksgiving. >> hampton, more about the protests. their thought eventually is that they get things changed or, is there a specific set of things that they want to see from the company before they'll stop these protests? >> reporter: well, number one, remember this is against the backdrop last week of walmart filing a complaint with the nlrb saying these protests that have increased in recent months have
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bordered on disrupting their businesses. the nlrb will have to resolve the merits of that going forward. meanwhile, there's a push both within walmart and again from outside labor groups especially a union representing among others grocery store workers to really put the pedal to the metal if you will in trying to get some sort of union foothold inside walmart itself. >> hmm. if you've talked to the workers, what's the sense you get from just the average workers who are there in the stores? are they on board with some of these things? does it bother and disrupt them? >> reporter: i've been inside the store a couple times, up and down the aisles and talking with workers if you will on the qt. they're hesitant to talk about it. of course anything that improves their basic job situation they'd be all for, but in the meantime, you know, they're so conscious of projecting that smiling face of the cooperative employee to
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customers going forward, it's a culture change that's going to take a lot of time. >> hampton thank you very much. appreciate it. joining us with more on black friday and what it means for the economy, jay bryson from wells fargo securities. >> good morning, steve, how are you? >> good. let's talk about the consumer. how does the shape of the consumer compare this year compared with this time last year. >> year over year sales this year will be around 4%. last year it was 5.5% or so. some of that is a price effect, lower prices this year so in general we cut through it all the consumer is holding up right now, kind of like they were last year as well. >> is it significant that unemployment this time last year was 9% and it's 7.9% this time? >> we have created 2 million jobs over the last year, another thing that helps here is the fact that consumer confidence is
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starting to trend up as well. what's that a function of? maybe it's because house prices are starting to stabilize and move up. those things help us here but just given the fact that you don't have the pricing power that you did last year at this time in terms of nominal year over year sales i think it's going to be tough to beat that 5.5%. volumes may hold up but in terms of nominal sales which most retailers look at, i think it's tough to beat the 5.5%. >> jay, we've seen debt levels come down and debt service come down a bit. how significant is that for the ability of the consumer to spend? >> our estimates are about a half of that or so, debt service comes down is because of writedowns among banks and credit card companies and things of that nature. clearly there's a segment of consumers out there that are still stressed, there's other consumers who continue to work who have the spending ability and over the last year or so consumer spending is growing about 2% in real terms, kind of
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where we are right now, we're'r settling in and around there. it's certainly not falling apart. it's not great consumer spending but consumers are slowly coming back in terms of their balance sheets and that's a supportive factor. >> jay, walk us through the numbers. the third quarter is revised up gdp around 2.83%. what do you have for the fourth quarter and first quarter? >> the fourth quarter we're looking around 1.5% and i think the first quarter is a wild card. it depends on the fiscal cliff and if we fall off how long we stay off it. the longer the bush tax cuts go away and stay away and the more sequester starts to kick in the weaker the first quarter gets. in a worst case scenario, you fall off the cliff, stay off the cliff, you look at negative numbers in the first quarter. we don't think that's going to happen. our base case somewhere around 1% or so. there's a lot of uncertainty as it relates to the fiscal cliff in the first quarter. >> it could be negative. >> it certainly could be if you
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go off and stay off. there's no deal. >> jay thank you for joining us this morning. >> thanks, steve. >> becky? when we come back, dude, outlet malls have become major destinations for black friday shoppers. we'll head to tyson's corner outside of d.c. right after this. [ penélope ] i found the best cafe in the world. nespresso. where i never have to compromise on anything. ♪ where just one touch creates the perfect coffee. where every cappuccino and latte is only made with fresh milk.
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♪ ♪ welcome back, everybody. shoppers at tyson's corner are filling the outlet stores at midnight. cory scott, senior property manager. we've heard reports there's a lot of traffic earlier, by opening at midnight do you see younger people coming out more? >> this is the fourth year that we've had midnight shopping. tyson's corner center has been a part of that tradition all four years and people young and old
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come out here. we've been out here since 11:00 p.m. getting everything ready and at midnight the stores were full and it's still full at this hour this morning, so it's been an exciting night, and the midnight shopper does tend to have a strong, younger demographic and we see a lot of great sales going on in the abercrombie & fitch, aeropostale, the gaps, victoria's secret. the demographic is starting to transition a little bit more and we're getting a full day's balance right now. >> cory you look at the deals this year, how does it compare to what you've seen in years past? >> you know, every year the retailers come out and change things up depending on what they're seeing with the consumers. this year there's a lot of great deals on electronics, both apple and our microsoft store have had great deals on laptops that have been popular, a lot of gift with
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purchase promotions which we think is a great sign and the shoppers seem to be reacting positively to them this morning. >> what is the sense you get just in terms of how shoppers are feeling this year based on, compared to what they were feeling last year or the last couple of years? >> we're cautiously optimistic that we're going to have a strong shopping season this year. we're looking at the projections from the national retail federation which is around 4%, which is some of the best predictions they've had in a number of years and talking to retailers and shoppers this morning, and late last night, everybody seems very upbeat and very excited about the holiday shopping season and they're out here for the experience, they love to come out with their families after the turkey dinners and take part in the excitement, take advantage of the doorbusters and soak in the start of the holiday shopping season. >> cory, thank you very much for
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joining us again. cory scott, appreciate your time. coming up, from main street to wall street, we're going to check in with an industry analyst to see how black friday sales are track so long far. as we head to a break, check out the price of crude. we're coming back right after this. i always wait until the last minute. can i still ship a gift in time for christmas? yeah, sure you can. great. where's your gift? uh... whew. [ male announcer ] break from the holiday stress. ship fedex express by december 22nd for christmas delivery.
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not cry ♪ ♪ better be good i'm telling you why ♪ ♪ santa claus is comin' to town ♪ you were just looking at a live shot there of toys "r" us this morning on this black friday. welcome back to "squawk box." joining us from chicago is brian nagel from oppenheimer, thanks for joining us on this post thanksgiving day, black friday, i don't know what else we can call it. what is your sense, brian, of the sales and what they may mean or not mean in the past let's say 12 hours? >> by most indications i've been watching your show all morning, shoppers are out there. it looks like the start or the beginning a strong black friday. i always keep in mind when i think about a company like best buy that this is just one indication of the holiday and a lot of times in the case of best buy they're sacrificing margin
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to drive cap or capture market share. the holiday season is long and we have today and all the way through december 25th and thereafter it's only one indication. >> we've asked dana this question, the winners and losers, top three winners and top three losers. >> i have a hard time seeing how consumer electronics retail wins this holiday season. we'll see a lot of traffic numbers. at the end of the day margins will be under pressure. best buy, hh gregg, they're losers. tiffany's sets up really well. it's not really a black friday type of play but they set up well for the holiday, if for no reason they had a weak holiday. pier one imports they've done a great job with their merchandising, that's a store people go to more when they're setding up their homes for the holidays.
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how much overcapacity is there in the brexz and mortar retail business and will we see a shakeout after they try to take it through this christmas and hang it up, one of these guys or a weaning out of capacity in the bricks and mortar? >> i followed retail for a long time and as long as i've been around we've always had this overcapacity issue within the retail sector. there's no question you need some capacity. what's interesting is the only time we saw a significant relief in capacity was through the great recession when companies like circuit city and linen bes n things went out of business. i don't think it's make or break for the retailers and i think about jcpenney, a name i talk about all the time on your show, i feel over the next couple years this turnaround happens. no question they'll have a tough holiday selling season. >> we're talking double-digit
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growth in online sales. >> sales. >> and so much of the extra capacity comes out of the bricks and mortar goes online. why is there not overcapacity there? >> it's complimentary. overall you're not having new models being built. when there is building in real estate it's outlet malls, typically more profitable. you look at what retailers are doing, they're combining their online with the stores. they'll have an edited selection, online, have the full assortme assortment. ryan, what do you think the surprise will be, sales or margins this holiday season and who? >> what i'm thinking about in consumer electronics retail we'll surprise to the downside of the margin side. people are talking about the 4% number, some other expectations for the individual companies, i think sales will be in line but we'll have a weak margin holiday. >> i'm kind of shocked, brian, i
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was looking around online and the apple online store is offering discounts. that's not something you see often at a place like apple. >> it's a big negative for best buy and other consumer electronics retailers. >> you were on amazon, we'll talk cyber monday. today i imagine some people sit at home with their mouse and click. >> a colleague of mine at oppenheimer watches amazon and there's no question each and every holiday online retail takes more share and that's a function of more people being connected, have better connections, the online retailers are doing a better job merchandising their websites. each year it's a bigger threat for the traditional retailers. >> brian thank you for joining us. when we come back a live report from a walmart in maryland. some of the retailers' workers have been threatening to walk off the job to protest a host of issues. wards for his small business! how does this thing work?
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♪ it's the most wonderful time of the year ♪ ♪ it's the most wonderful time of the year ♪
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welcome back to "squawk box" we are approaching 8:30 a.m. on the east coast. hampton pearson joins us now from outside of a walmart in woodlawn, maryland, with more. hampton? >> andrew, the buses of protesters just arrived, they'll be off-loading and end up in the parking lot behind me. we are off the walmart property, part of their security restrictions in anticipation of those protests. there was a dry run earlier this week where there was a smaller protest. walmart is adam ant they did not walk off the job. they were doing so on their own
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for those walmart employees who choose to participate whatever goes on behind me in the next few minutes. it's all part of again if you will nationwide organized labor and their supporters really turning up the heat to try to get unions inside walmart, 1.4 million employees. 4,500 stores in the u.s. walmart will take this part of the black market protest in stride. their focus is on their business day. they had 35 million black market shoppers last time this year. the next 20 minutes or so we should have a lot more action here. back to you. >> okay. thank you, hampton. >> it's a half day for the markets. here's the schedule. the new york stock exchange and nasdaq and cme close at 1:00 eastern. as for commodities, comex metals finishes at 12:30 and anaheim
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ex-energy closes an hour later. joining us now is rick and jim. jim, i saw that you were excited about a stock or something. what was that? >> when did you see it? i've been excited about a lot of things lately. >> i read something in the notes -- that's a lame question on my part. i'm sorry. you have been listening to the black friday coverage this morning getting excited about retail or anything? >> no. when i look at black friday, how can the people who have the day off leave their warm bed for that. to me the retail thing is ridiculous. there are things i like in retail. when i look at black friday, i think of i don't mind the stock market in general over the last four days has mostly been showing us some optimism about the fiscal cliff in anticipation of a positive headline. when do we need the positive headline? when is anticipation good enough? i think we're at that point
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right now. i think we need good news. i don't see what the stock market is excited about. i have not seen any good headline. europe is leading us today. good business confidence out of germany. there was also some more talk about another bailout for greece. the really good headline, i don't think it's possible to come from europe because three days ago france was downgraded. we need something good from the fiscal cliff. you can buy a stock like amazon or target but if we get nasty news from the fiscal cliff, the stock market is going to grab those down on the vortex. >> what's going on down there on the floor, rick? some better news out of germany? some better news out of china. i also thought i saw greek yields coming down if that were possible. >> i guess it is possible. you have to be careful what greek yields you look at. there aren't that many matures i would say are actively trading. you know, there's a holiday flavor to the market. the pits are pretty full. when i used to trade, i would
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find holiday markets can be profitable if you're patient. we're up close to 40 points in preopening dow futures. up a handful, four points in s&ps. i would think that look for those early morning trends to continue. equities are going to float a bit higher. i think the treasury market is going to be absolutely comatose between 166 and 169 on tens and maybe that's even too wide around 167 right now. the big deal is next week. we have meaty data points, steve. many are looking for a rather substantial upward revision on our second look at third quarter gdp. i'm not sure if i buy into it. but trust me, if we do really see three-quarters to 1% upgrade, that would be something the markets would have to deal with. >> i don't agree, rick. not just because i reflexively
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disagree with you, i think that what i keep asking economists, all right, we're going from -- we've been talking about this for a couple weeks now. we probably are going to go to 3% from 2%, the original print. i don't hear any upside on fourth quarter. the only thing i'm seeing is maybe sandy gives a little boost. everybody is still in that 1% to 1.5% range. maybe the market get excited on revision of third quarter but i suggest it shouldn't if fourth quarter will be a 1.5% economy. >> i tell you what, if we get a 2.8 revision, i would venture to say you'll see at least a 7 to 10 basis point move in a ten-year note yield. whether it lasts or not is a big deal. it's worth 7 to 10 basis points if you -- >> jim, chime into this. we know this revision is coming because we've had the other reports that have told us the missing pieces we had from third quarter as it was printed.
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it should not be a surprise to the market. as we all know, sometimes the market doesn't know what it should know and it gets excited about things it ought to have known. >> the thing that struck me in the conversation is to me when you think of 2.8% gdp, that sounds so fantastic considering what we're used to. realistically, it's sluggish. whether 2.8 or 2.2, we expect the fed to be involved because they told us they need better than that. we've seen some of the numbers lately. >> who cares if the fed is involved? i'm really excited. there's going to be air to breathe today. >> i tell you exactly who is excited about it. the stock market, the gold market. >> ben's relatives are excited about. steve is excited about it. >> i want to point out to certain people who were skeptical of the decline in the unemployment rate leading up to the election -- let's shovel out more unemployment. i'm excited.
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woo! >> if the potential growth rate is 2.5 -- >> is this what we're looking at next month? have you already had the secret meeting? >> i wasn't on the call for that one. my point is that there was enough growth in the third quarter to bring down the unemployment rate. >> if that's the growth that makes you and the world happy, you'll be happy for ten years. >> when you have growth above potential it's sufficient to bring down the unemployment rate. maybe the decline of the unemployment rate was actually for real. >> i'm one of those people -- >> you're not going to convince me. >> i was one of those people skeptical about the last unemployment number that we saw. that makes this unemployment number so much more important as you say. if all those things line up and we're talking about some pretty big ifs, i'll be ready to buy the stock market if we get good gdp number and solid unemployment number, that hasn't
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happened yet. >> there's another way to quickly look at it. if you get that seven basis point jump on what really is old data i'm not arguing with you, you get another great entry point to buy it. that's the way i'm sure a lot of traders will look at it. >> you are talking about treasuries and not stocks. >> yes, treasuries. >> i think it is interesting. you just cannot know what the market knows. i'm going to go with rick on this. if rick says the market is not factoring in this upward revision, there's definitely upside there and of course downside on bonds. thanks, guys. >> thank you. >> enjoyed it. >> all right. when we come back, we have two extraordinary gentlemen. not your average real estate agent or contractor. hdtv's property brothers will join us on a unique take on housing right after this. we've been watching shoppers from coast to coast this morning. crazy, i tell you. out there this early. right now as we head to a break, look at a live picture from tyson corner in mclean,
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virginia. 0
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they are building they are building an empire on hdtv with breakout hits like "the property brothers."
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joining us from north of the border, drew and jonathan scott. gentlemen, good morning. thank you for joining us today. >> good morning. >> thanks for having us. >> it's great to talk to both of you today. you two have these breakout hits that are huge. everybody watches them. you also know a lot about real estate. that's why we want to have you on today to give us insight. we have been talking about how it looks like there is a turn in the housing market. we thought we would ask you two to get it straight from the horse's mouth. you are probably the one that has your finger on the pulse about what's been happening just in terms of home prices and things. what have you been seeing recently? >> we're both on top of things. what we noticed in the cities we've been working, we just finished filming down in austin, texas, for eight months. as much as people think the market is down and things aren't moving, that's not the case. almost every property we dealt with on the show and our own investments had multiple offers. even in toronto is the same thing. last couple horses we've had clients buy, they have been selling for about 150,000 up to
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180,000 over list price. it goes to show there is movement. we're from vegas. i live in vegas. even in vegas you have seen a steady climb. i wouldn't say it's a flip market. i'm not suggesting that people get out and try to do what we do. improve a fixer upper and sell it taft but still a good market. >> still a lot of volatility. you have to go by the numbers and know what you're doing. there's a lack of supply which is causing a little bit of strive for demand. presale market we've seen that the -- we've actually beat the forecast, activity is higher and new home starts are higher than in the last four years. i like to see that activity. with the banks keeping things a little bit more restricted as far as who they are lending to and with the low interest rates, that means we're getting a healthy growth. >> does that make your job harder or easier as you start to see this turn in the housing market? >> drew doesn't really know what hard work is. it's a whole different scenario. >> it's all right. i'm fine with him doing all of the laborious work. for us, it doesn't really matter. when the market is hot, things
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are turning over fast and it's on the realtor side of things it makes my job easier. i actually like to make sure whatever house we're working with is looking its best. we stage it at its best and make sure that it sells for its top dollar. whether the market is hot or not -- >> you can make money in an upside down or sideways market if you're smart and go by the numbers. with he have our clients' backs. whether our own investment or for a client, we'll tell them if it's a bad idea no matter how emotionally charged they are about it. >> our new show season one is airing helping people do a mild reno and stage their homes to move on to a bigger home. we're proving that the houses are selling fast. houses have been sitting on the market are selling within a day for multiple offers. >> drew comes along and "buying and selling" has more facetime
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for him. i thought it would be a failure. it's doing better. >> we're beating "property brothers." >> before we move to the next item, i know that you spend a lot of time in home depots or lowe's. we've been hearing from those companies and how they see a turn in the business market. do you see more business in those areas with other people getting back in there? >> absolutely. people are taking an interest. i don't know if it's because of shows like ours or just the fact that now we have a little bit more cash to spend. things have slowly been improving and as the consumer confidence comes back, people are getting into stores and buying products and it all helps. it's a nasty cycle and if nobody is spending at stores like lowe's or home depots or anything like that, it affects everything else. >> we do see that if you are doing it, make sure you can do it right. make sure the finished job is a quality job. looks professional. otherwise you're not adding value to your home but doing a
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disservice. >> know when to bring in a pro. it's like cheers when i walk into home depot. >> when i walk in they say what are you doing here? >> who goes into home depot in a suit. >> give us the most bang for your buck. >> it's approaching it properly. you need to know who buyers are in your area and whether you are renovating for your own enjoyment. in one community, maybe people really want granite or stone countertops but in a first-time buyer community they won't pay extra for that. understand where you are spe spending your money. >> is it the bathroom or kitchen? >> that's the misconception. they think you have to do just the bathroom or kitchen. what we tell people is it's better to spend a little bit of money throughout the entire place to freshen the whole place and then put extra money in that
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kitchen or bathroom or feature area or even that outdoor living space. if you just renovate one or two rooms and rest is dated, you won't fool buyers. they see an ugly house with one or two clean rooms. when a buy walks in, they are wowed in every space. >> besides home depots and lowe's, who else is benefiting? >> it's everybody. honestly, even the trades. in the cities that we work in, the trades are busy. everybody is working. we had a really bad time there where right after the collapse in the economy people were really ticked off losing their homes so they were destroying them. houses were in rough shape. people were pulling copper out to sell it from plumbing. there was a lot of work that had to happen to bring houses up to par. once the bank realized they could get more money and get them on the market, it helped improve -- for a while the houses were disastrous and nobody wanted to go near them.
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>> one of the last houses we bought had a couch sitting through the front window. >> if you could pick or two or three cities you try to do this in, where would you do it? >> it's not just because it's home but we love vegas. it's a great market. a lot of people are scared away. they think it's a glitz and glam city but one of the hardest hit when the economy crashed and for buyers it's one of the best cities. you can get into -- we've been buying detached homes for 25,000 to 30,000 with four bedrooms and two bathrooms. >> it's simple economics. if you look at the numbers, supply and demand, it's a bad time to sell. we say if you're going to go in, don't look to flip. look to hold onto a property for three to five years. do it as a rental income. we're at 18% to 22% on our investments in vegas alone. you look at austin. austin is a funny market. there are many, many markets within it and some of those are not a good buy and some of them are phenomenal. that's why it's best to work with someone that's local that
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knows the areas. i don't know everything across the entire country. i know in those markets we worked in, we've done very well. >> i know that you joked about how who is doing heavy lifting and things. jonathan, on a recent episode you found a rat's nest behind a bathroom. that's disgusting. how do you make him make that up to you? >> we found a raccoon still living in the wall when we were pulling it open there was a raccoon living in there. >> i'm glad i'm at the spa what he's doing this. >> it doesn't bother me. i have found nasty stuff throughout my career. it's homeowners and it makes for good tv, let's be honest. you'll notice they punch right in on the homeowner reaction. they don't even go to my reaction because they know i'm used to it. what can you do? it's gross. my job is to get out and show there's potential in old homes. polish them up and turn them into something desirable. >> have you thought at all about the sandy effect? some of the neighborhoods around here were devastated.
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what are you thinking about those neighborhoods and what can you tell homeowners rebuilding right now? >> think safety first. we want to make sure that any of these houses affected by flooding, that's when it can be a breathing ground for mold and that will affect indoor air quality. get in there. if you don't know what you're doing, bring in a pro. you have to air it out. anything that's been submerged in water for more than 24 hours, it will breed mold. >> a lot of people are trying to move back into their homes before they know it's safe and sound. that's why bringing in a professional that knows what to look for make sure the foundation is solid and that structure itself, frame work is solid. we have seen time and time again where people have come back in and then within a couple weeks there's injury or even worse because the house wasn't safe to come back into. we're talking with hdtv to get down and help with some relief efforts. >> we'll see when the new housing numbers come out, there will be an effect from sandy and we want to just make sure that -- there's been great
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support from everybody to get in and help rebuild but it's something that really negatively effects the market and the interim? >> thank you both for your help and for your time this morning. we really appreciate it. >> thanks for having us. >> we heard from hampton pearson earlier this hour from walmart in maryland. this is a live picture from a helicopter over the store. some of the retailers employees have been planning a series of walkouts across the nation today. a few bus loads of pro union supporters pulled up within the last few minutes. this is how things are taking shape there. a protest that expected to take place at this walmart for a short period of time and then move to another store along the way. hampton is there today and will keep us up to date on everything happening on the ground. >> coming up, we are more than 12 hours after some retailers first open their doors on thanksgiving. we'll get a read on how sales are going. on monday, don't miss it. steve will join us. has a new project fix the debt. corporate leaders calling on compromise in washington.
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we have the ceo of motorola. "squawk" on monday at 6:00 eastern in the morning. or that printing in color had to cost a fortune.
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day after thanksgiving. not a line but definitely people out and about on this friday morning. coming up, we are going to give dana the last word on the consumer and then on monday on "squawk" don't miss it. motorola solution ceo greg brown warning congress that doing nothing on the fiscal cliff will be undermining the economy. where's your gift? uh... whew. [ male announcer ] break from the holiday stress. ship fedex express by december 22nd for christmas delivery.
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>> welcome welcome back. let's get back to our guest host for the last word. you have had a bit of news coming across your blackberry. >> walmart says they had the best black friday ever with the most traffic, stronger than it was last year. the early promotions drove business. i've got around 20 channel checkers around the country from our firm. we see over 200 stores with slower traffic than last year. where the traffic is, where the deals are. >> why put this up before 9:00 in the morning? you haven't been able to measure what's happened. >> we haven't seen a release
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like this from walmart ever. >> it makes me wonder about the protests that are taking place. >> how do you compare this year with last year if stores opened earlier this year? >> you have more time this year than you had before. it's still early. where the deals are, it's best buy, it's target. >> are you ready to make calls on how black friday is going to go today? >> black friday has been a decent day so far. the deals will win. i think overall it will be up from last year. it's a long season. >> when do you know in the season? when do you think sometime in december you will make a call to clients saying it this guy is actually doing much worse than we thought. this guy is doing much better. >> two saturdays before christmas. the saturday before christmas is typically the busiest day. you'll go through a lull period right after thanksgiving weekend for about a week and a half and then you'll know by middle saturday in december. >> there will be all of these stories. let's tell investors. it will tell us during that week
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and a half low that things are going badly. it happens every year. it's always like -- >> don't get scared. that's when you have macy's, you'll have tjx, you'll have nordstrom. all out there and they have what consumers want. >> i'm thinking -- most undervalued. we haven't talked about most undervalued. what's the one we're missing? >> the f corps with north face doesn't have anything on sale. they have a christmas season. apparel manufacturers could have a good season. >> are you skeptical on tech given what we've heard this morning? >> too early to say. apple always has a black friday sale. >> what about microsoft and the tablet? is that on your radar? >> it's on radar. we're watching it carefully. we see more consumers buying on

Squawk Box
CNBC November 23, 2012 6:00am-9:00am EST

News/Business. Becky Quick, Joe Kernen, Andrew Ross Sorkin. Business news and talk as the trading day unfolds on Wall Street. New. (CC)

TOPIC FREQUENCY Us 69, U.s. 12, America 9, Macy 9, Steve Cohen 7, Becky 7, Dana 7, Washington 7, Nespresso 6, Ho 6, California 6, Steve 6, Dana Telsey 6, S&p 5, Terry Lundgren 5, Jane 4, Hampton 4, Canada 4, Buster 4, Maryland 4
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